Disrupting Everything
New technologies are making it easier than ever to disrupt the global networks we rely upon, while the prohibitions against doing so are fading away. Let's dig in.
Network (or system) disruption is global and growing, from Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia's oil and gas infrastructure to the Houthi’s drone blockade that has turned the Suez Canal into a ghost town to ongoing disruption efforts (cyber and physical) across the US, the EU, and Russia (for more on the military theory of network disruption, see my book, Brave New War).
Israel’s “pager” attack on Hezbollah is only the most recent, although innovative, example. Let’s explore what happened with this attack and what the spread of network disruption means.
The “Pager” Attack
Here’s what happened;
Israel gained access to a supply chain providing communications equipment to Hezbollah.
Israel used this access to sabotage these devices, turning them into tiny, hard-to-detect bombs. Israel triggered these devices remotely in two waves, killing dozens and injuring thousands (including civilians).
Israel triggered this attack early due to the growing risk that the exploit would soon be discovered.
The amount of explosive required to kill/maim/damage/disrupt targets decreases with the proximity of the explosion. The ratio is; the closer you get to a vulnerability, the less explosive is required.
Remotely detonating devices worn on the body reduce radically reduces the amount of explosive required. The looming arrival of an Internet of things and pervasive computing will spread this risk across the entire modern environment.
This ratio also works with autonomous and semi-autonomous drones and robotics as well. These systems can rapidly and inexpensively deliver bomblets or non-explosive impact-based weapons (accelerated by gravity, etc.) to precise locations (head/body or pipe/wire/etc.). The more autonomous these drones are (AI), the more effective they become (able to select specific targets out of a crowd, etc.).
Zero-Day Disruption
Here’s why this attack was interesting.
The method of attack Israel used wasn’t novel. Explosive electronic devices have been used in the past to assassinate individuals.
It became novel the moment Israel turned it into a physical zero-day attack on Hezbollah’s entire organization by increasing the scale of the attack and reducing the detectability of the sabotage to allow it to persist inside the target network until triggered.
Despite the physical losses, the attack did most of its damage in the mental realm of warfare. Specifically, it leveraged ambiguity, deception, and novelty to disorient, disrupt, and overload Hezbollah, making it harder for them to make decisions.
Unpacking the Unease
There is something about the ‘pager’ ‘smartphone’ attack that has generated an amorphous unease. A signal that something is wrong, but you can’t quite put your finger on it. The best way to get a handle on generalized anxiety like this is to unpack it. This attack;
Pulsed an ongoing fear that the technology we surround ourselves with is turning on us or will hurt us. This concern is understandable and likely warranted. Networking is rewiring our brains, and we are on the cusp of a ubiquitous technological intelligence that may not have our best interests in mind.
Undermined a tiny bit of our confidence in the global supply system and our trust in the safety of commercial technology brands. Again, this is warranted. Furthermore, this loss may represent an opportunity for technology brands to guarantee the safety of their products in the future. In the Tylenol Cyanide incident of 1982, the loss of trust in commercial products caused by this attack resulted in the development of tamper-proof packaging that is common today.
Unearthed a new fear that if a state attacked an enemy using this method and we were injured or killed simply because we were using the same product, nothing would be done in our defense if the attacker had enough tribal support for its actions. Most of the focus would be on celebrating the elimination of an evil threat, and our injury would be actively ignored by the media/state and soon buried in a flurry of tribal informational chaos.
Disrupting Networks
Israel’s attack is indicative of a growing trend, particularly among relatively small, weak, or desperate nation-states, toward the use of network disruption to damage enemies. Here’s why;