Early Thinking on 5GW

Here’s an early essay on “5GW” describing changes underway in warfare.

MONDAY, 16 OCTOBER 2006

THE CHANGING FACE OF WAR: Into the 5th Generation (5GW)

In 1989, as the Berlin wall was being torn down, Bill Lind (with Nightengale, Schmitt, Sutton, and Wilson) wrote "The Changing Face War: Into the Fourth Generation" for the Marine Corps Gazette. This seminal article made the case that while large-scale interstate warfare was going the way of the dodo, low-intensity guerrilla warfare and terrorism would thrive in its stead. They were right.

To make their point, Lind and his collaborators divided warfare over the last two centuries into four generations, where a successive generation of warfare defeated each previous generation. On the surface, many of the elements described as core to the fourth generation are not new and reflect guerrilla wars we have seen in the past:

• The emphasis on extreme dispersion. Maneuver at the expense of firepower.

• Decentralized logistics. An ability to live off of the land.

• Psychological warfare. To collapse the moral cohesion of the enemy (internal collapse).

However, Lind argued that the use of these methods of warfare on a global scale, with new technology, and through new methods of employment in combination with the decline of the West would radically increase the threat posed by fourth-generation opponents. This has proven out as these opponents use our strength against us (judo moves), and our rear areas are targeted (rather than our military forces).

Into 5GW

Lind: Whoever is first to recognize, understand, and implement a generational change can gain a decisive advantage. Conversely, a nation that is slow to adapt to generational change opens itself to catastrophic defeat.

Things would be bad enough with just fourth-generation opponents. Still, as the research on global guerrillas has borne out, a new, more dangerous generation is forming: potentially the 5th generation of warfare. Much of this new generation was derived and accelerated in the cauldron of Iraq, just as the basis for 3rd generation of warfare was proved in the Spanish Civil war. What we see is jarring:

• Open-source warfare. An ability to decentralize beyond the limits of a single group (way beyond cell structures) using new development and coordination methodologies. This new structure doesn't only radically expand the number of potential participants; it shrinks the group size well below any standard viability measures. This organizational structure creates a dynamic whereby new entrants can appear anywhere. In London, Madrid, Berlin, and New York.

• Systems disruption. A method of sabotage that goes beyond the simple sabotage of physical infrastructure. This method of warfare, which can burst onto the scene as a black swan, uses network dynamics (a new form of leveraged maneuver) to undermine and reorder global systems. Through this Schumpeterian "creative destruction,” new environments favorable to opposition forces are built (often due to a descent into primary loyalties and pressure from global markets).

• Virtual states (ala Philip Bobbitt). Unlike the guerrilla movements of the past, many of the 4GW forces we are fighting today have found a way to integrate their activities with global "crime." No longer are guerrilla movements or terrorists aimed at taking control of the reigns of the state or merely proxies for states. A new form of economic sustenance, this black globalization is already vast (a GDP of trillions per year) and gains momentum through the weakening and disruption of states. This military/economic integration creates a virtuous feedback loop that allows groups to achieve greater degrees of independence and financial wealth through the warfare they conduct.

NOTE: Whether you call these developments 4GW on steroids or the start of a 5th generation, what matters is that there is a shift underway.