Losing the Moral War

The damage from Israel's moral defeat at the ICJ will have far-reaching consequences for the US-led international order and those who benefit from it.

On January 26, 2024, The International Court of Justice (ICJ) released its preliminary ruling on South Africa's claim that Israel has violated the Genocide Convention (passed in 1948 to prevent another holocaust). The court ruled there was prima facie evidence that a genocide was occurring in Gaza, and to avoid further genocidal harm, the court demanded that Israel must:

• Refrain from future violations of Article 2 of the Genocide Convention and instruct its military to do the same. Example: an Article II provision prohibits "killing members of the group" with "intent to destroy, in whole or in part," that group.

• Preserve all evidence of genocidal conspiracy, incitement, and actions for judicial review in the future.

• Provide immediate humanitarian relief to the Palestinians.

The vote on each demand was nearly unanimous — including the US, UK, Russia, China, etc., only Uganda and Israel voted against it. However, while this order didn’t directly call for a ceasefire or withdrawal, it had essentially the same effect since continuing the war, as it has been fought, would be impossible without triggering a violation of the order.

Regardless, this ruling matters. The ‘international rule of law’ is one of the central pillars of the US power globally (pax Americana), and the ICJ (particularly when it rules on genocide) is at the center of that. Ignoring its rulings would greatly diminish US power, leaving “might makes right” as the only means of maintaining this order.

The Moral Dimension of Warfare

Before we examine why the US and others threw Israel under the bus, let’s consider the larger context: the moral conflict. Israel’s primary threat is the long war being fought in the moral dimension. Although the focus is often the fighting on the ground, the only real existential threat Israel faces today is a loss in this longer, larger war. A loss there would disconnect it from the support and connectivity it needs to survive.

Very little warfare theory exists on wars engaged in the moral dimension. Most of it focuses on the physical dimension. That’s a problem since the moral dimension is a major theater of warfare in a modern, interconnected world. Let’s correct that oversight. Wars with a center of gravity in the moral dimension are won by;