Podcasts: How network warfare could go nuclear in Ukraine
A good discussion on escalation and the goals of the swarm.
Here’s a podcast discussion on the escalation of the war in Ukraine with the legendary investor, Doug Casey (hosted by our mutual friend and community member, Matt Smith).
Sorry about the delay in getting it out. I was waiting for a second podcast that I did last week to drop, but it didn’t. I will provide the link when it does.
We’ve seen some significant escalation in the war since this discussion. Specifically:
It is now being termed a genocide (by Joe Biden is “leading” the swarm again).
The US has authorized a large arms shipment that includes heavy weapons (artillery, helicopters, light armor, etc.).
The Ukrainians demonstrated their ability to strike Russian assets when they sank the Russian missile cruiser Moskva with a cruise missile.
What does this escalation mean (this is the stuff that kept me up last night)?
The new framing of this conflict (a genocide) is driving dangerous levels of involvement. The US is increasingly willing to send the weapons to Ukraine that will allow it to not only defend itself but to roll back the Russian invasion (potentially the Crimea as well).
Ukraine can increasingly take the offensive against Russian forces, demonstrating that they can strike deep (potentially even into Russian territory).
If the war spills over into Russia, already suffering from the effects of socioeconomic and informational disconnection, a catastrophic nuclear response should be an expected outcome.
Here’s why.
The critical problem is that DC decision-makers are trying to lead the networked swarm through increasingly aggressive rhetoric rather than developing a sound strategy. If they were paying attention to strategy, warning bells would be going off right now since the war is about to run afoul of the vital insight into the Russian mindset: it is neurotically insecure. Here’s what George Kennan (the architect of the containment strategy that kept us safe for 85 years) said about Russia:
In short, we should expect the Russians to overreact if they believe their survival is at risk (remember, this is a country willing, on numerous occasions, to follow a scorched earth policy to defeat an enemy). Unfortunately, we are very close to that point now.
Sincerely,
John Robb