Technological Resilience
Here's how to use resilience as a strategy to protect you (your family and your community) from the disruptions caused by systemic breakdowns (power, food, etc.) and AI development.
A few months ago, a Harvard freshman ran an interesting experiment. She asked the professors and the TAs teaching the classes (from economics to politics) for her humanities major to grade a written assignment completed by ChatGPT (an LLM, large language model AI). The result was unexpectedly good — A. A. A. A-. B. B-. which combined into a GPA of 3.57.
The typical reaction to this result ranged from random criticism (flawed approach, Harvard sucks, ‘this wouldn’t happen in STEM,’ or grade inflation) to worries about how education will be damaged in a world with an AI this good. However, that response was just surface noise since it misses the most critical insight;
Academic education exists to teach the next generation a body of knowledge. This educational body of knowledge is a complex network of intersecting ideas, language, and perspectives.
AI models are already close to approximating the academic body of knowledge we teach educated adults and can apply this knowledge when asked.
Hybrid AI models that mix language models with models for sounds and images will expand this approximation of knowledge into every other field of expertise.
This means that AI is more than a powerful new technology. It’s a transformational technological artifact (ala Marshall McLuhan and my earlier writing). An artifact that will radically change how we think, learn, and work. It will even change how we organize society (new methods of governance and institutions).
AIs as Social Artifacts
Over the long run, transformational social artifacts (as we saw with the printing press and similar technologies) will benefit society and individuals positively. Over the long run, we can expect the following:
Better education (vast increases in the speed, breadth, and fidelity of intergenerational knowledge transfer). Think in terms of how books improve knowledge transfer.
It will create a much more productive economy and increase individual wealth if used correctly.
Greatly enhanced innovation and creativity. The ability to explore ideas and turn them into reality faster.
However, in the short run, for many of us (globally), the changes will be highly disruptive and potentially fatal;
At the personal level: Economic changes/job loss. Loss of connection to a shared reality. Difficulty adapting. Rampant addiction.
The splintering of society (for/against, different methods of use, against misuse). Delegitimization of institutions and using these AIs to change the culture in divisive and threatening ways.
Extreme ideologies and beliefs (historical examples: communism/Das Kapital and fascism/radio). AI-fueled authoritarianism. War (AIs as weapon systems).
Thriving in a Disruptive Environment
So, what do we do? How do we thrive during this transition, despite the dangers? The best strategy is resilience. Resilience is a strategy that safeguards individuals, families, and communities against systemic disruptions and failures — from extended blackouts to food shortages to temporary social breakdowns. The basic philosophy of resilience is;
Connect, but connect on your own terms.
In practice, this means:
Connect to the system (grid, retail, etc.) to maximize opportunity, wealth, and convenience.
Be prepared for disconnection so that when it suddenly happens, you aren’t negatively impacted. This is done by making preparations (backup generator, wood stove, garden, fruit trees, stocked pantry, etc.) and skills (how to grow food, generate power, capture water, repair cars/equipment, etc.).
Use your preparation and skills as an asset if the disruption persists. Help others and provide shelter. Sell excess to the community. Form groups to teach and provide mutual support.
Technological Resilience
Now, let’s apply resilience to disruptive AI-fueled technological change (with some examples).