The American Way?
The American-led international system is collapsing and the US is the cause of its demise. Here's what went wrong with our decision-making and what it means.
The US-led, rules-based, international order is dead, and the US government has lost control of essential functions of national governance. Here’s a quick summary:
Defeat. Three years ago, the US evacuated Afghanistan (it even featured people falling from the landing gear of departing planes), driven from the country by a ragtag militia it had spent $2.5 trillion ‘rebuilding.’ Now, the US attempt to punish Russia for interference in US elections by extending NATO membership to Ukraine has turned into a disaster. Ukraine, despite massive amounts of aid from the US and NATO, is on the verge of disastrous defeat.
Debasement. In a misguided attempt to defend Israel against genocide charges (that the vast majority of the world supports), the US is actively undermining the ICJ (International Court of Justice) and defunding the relief agencies it built to be the centerpiece of the post-WW2 rules-based order. PS: a good ally would have prevented Israel from saying and doing the things it did to protect it from itself, not enable it.
Delusion. The US southern border has collapsed, and the US government has found itself incapable of stopping it. Over ten million people from around the world (from China to India to Uzbekistan to Venezuela) have illegally entered the US over the last three years, with no end in sight.
The current US strategic collapse isn’t due to a lack of information, bureaucratic processes, funding, or physical capabilities. It was an inevitable outcome of the ongoing failure of national decision-making. More specifically, it is a failure of something in decision-making called ‘orientation.’ Let’s dig in.
Orientation
The most crucial step in any decision-making process, whether you are an individual or a nation-state, is something John Boyd (America’s best military strategist) called orientation. It’s the step in decision-making that provides the following:
Who you are (experience, culture, training, education, character, beliefs, etc.).
Where you are (your place in the world, your situation).
What you want (your goals, where you want to go).
Good orientation faces you in the direction of the best solutions to your problems and a path to your goals. If you get your orientation wrong, every problem you face will become more difficult, and every problem you ‘solve’ will take you further from your goals.
In many military and bureaucratic settings, prefabricated orientation is provided through regulations, checklists, and doctrine. The path forward is formulaic. If this happens, move forward in this direction.
In advanced organizations, training and experience allow individuals the flexibility to achieve the commander's intent without specific direction. Individuals who can see and execute the intent at both the tactical and strategic levels are called “helicopter thinkers” or “strategic corporals.”
Orientation at the national and strategic levels is far more complex than at the individual level since it is rooted in the interplay of a country's culture, historical experiences, and national character. The mistake many often make is to replace these core elements of national orientation with flimsy theoretical constructs and ideologies. Unfortunately, that’s precisely what happened with the US.
America’s Orientation
Every year since 1862, in one of the longest-lasting traditions of the US Senate, a US Senator is chosen to read George Washington’s Farewell Address. The tradition began as a morale booster on the eve of the civil war since the address warns against petty divisions and why we are better off as a cohesive nation. However, the address is more than just a reminder to work together; George Washington's Farewell Address is the foundational document for all US national security orientation (it’s well worth reading). This orientation boils down to the following:
The US has a unique strategic position. It is far from most of the world’s conflicts and ancient hatreds. As a result, it should take advantage of this position by staying out of the fray to every extent possible. This position would allow it to reduce spending on war (building surplus when it can) while focusing on the economic prosperity of its citizens.
The US should avoid entangling alliances. Alliances should only be made in emergencies and be disbanded when those emergencies pass. It should avoid siding with one nation or another in its disputes, never favor any nation, and engage with all nations equally. It should do so without regard to regional disputes to which it isn’t a party, endeavoring to maximize mutually beneficial commercial connections to enhance the prosperity of America.
Finally, since the US is a young nation of immigrants, it is uniquely vulnerable to divided loyalties. It should guard against those loyal to other nations since they will endeavor to mislead the US into wars and endeavors that will harm it. Every effort should be taken to ensure that the people making decisions for the country are first loyal to America and its interests, above loyalty to any other nation, cause, or ideology.
Over the years, this orientation has served the US well. It’s why the US didn’t just navigate the 20th Century successfully; it emerged unequaled in power and prosperity. This isn’t to say the US is a perfect place, far from it, but relative to the rest of the world, it emerged in a very good place. Unfortunately, rather than allow traditional US orientation to guide our actions in the new century, America was misled by those promoting flimsy theoretical constructs, false loyalties, and naive ideologies.