The End of the Western Swarm
The Western networked Swarm started a conflict with Russia, China, and a growing number of nations. It has no means to end it, limit the catastrophic damage it may cause, or manage the aftermath.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine and the rapid escalation to a global conflict that immediately followed, we’ve been pressed against the edge of a nuclear catastrophe. For those willing to see it, there’s a tangible sense that any provocative event, particularly events that occur outside of Ukraine’s territory or attacks made with US assistance, could become the spark that ignites a nuclear WW3.
Attacks on Russian warships and other military targets in Crimea (the US has admitted to providing material assistance to this effort).
Ongoing sabotage targeting Russian infrastructure, and in Crimea in particular. The (likely done by the US, with support from elements in the German government, to prevent German business interests from weakening Germany’s support for Ukraine) destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines which made good the threat Biden made in Feb 2022: “If Russia invades Ukraine… there will be no Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it. I promise you. We will be able to do it.”
An attack by Russian aircraft that downed a US drone. A Ukrainian drone attack on Kremlin (denied by Ukraine). As bad as this situation is, it will likely get worse — from the UK’s gift of ‘long-range’ Shadow Strike cruise missiles to the US training of Ukrainian pilots to fly donated F-16s to Ukrainian raids on Russian towns near the border.
Taken together, this should be a warning sign, a flashing signal that something has gone terribly wrong with the US strategy in this war. With that in mind, let’s dig into what went wrong.
The Sole Superpower
Based on its actions, the US strategy in this war (see “America Needs Enemies” for more) is focused on regaining the global dominance it had after the end of the Cold War, with an understanding that it won’t be squandered on policing peripheral disputes (the Middle East, Afghanistan, terrorism, etc.). Instead, it will be focused on boxing in Russia, China, and any other emerging power that seeks to challenge US control. Although the goal of this strategy hasn’t been formally articulated (the reason why is explained in the next section), if it were, it would look like this:
Russia would be surrounded by NATO countries under the US nuclear umbrella, with a heavily armed Ukraine (a full member of NATO or a fully supported proxy) poised as a sword at its heart. Russia’s defeat in Ukraine would deeply damage it, draining it of the will to fight, creating political instability, and (potentially) leading to regime change (with US help). Ongoing economic weakness and a fractured political landscape would make it possible for the US to force disarmament in exchange for trade concessions by the West.
China would be surrounded by security and economic partnerships (ASEAN, G7, etc.), and Taiwan would become (reluctantly) an armed camp. Technology controls (chips, aircraft, etc.) would prevent China from developing an advanced military capable of challenging the US for control. Coercive threats would prevent China from re-arming Russia or supporting it economically at levels sufficient to allow it to recover.
India, Brazil, etc., and other rising states would be brought to heel as Russia and China are boxed in. The methods used to control Russia and China will serve as the template for coercing the rest of the non-Western world into compliance.
Leading the Swarm
The US strategy for this war is not the product of the US leadership. It originated, developed, and is still driven by an open-source (individuals, corporations, and nations) Western network called the Swarm. For its part, the US adopted the strategy of the Swarm with minimal conditions (no direct NATO involvement) to be considered a leader of it (leadership of a swarm is conditional — as long as you are moving towards its goals, you are a leader). For example:
The US government accepted the Swarm’s claims that Russian interference in US elections put Trump into office, Trump’s colluded with Russia, and Trump/Russia attempted to take over the US government in a coup on Jan 6th. This acceptance was demonstrated by the US framing this war as a “defense of democracy.”
The government has also fully embraced the Swarm’s extreme frame of this war (a by-product of networked tribalization). Russia and Putin (and Trump) aren’t just opponents; they are an evil that must be eradicated. This was demonstrated by Biden’s willingness to call Putin a war criminal (making negotiations nearly impossible), references to this war being similar to the start of WW2, and an unwillingness to support any peace proposal except total victory.
The US has also adopted the Swarm’s willingness to ignore the dangers of nuclear escalation. As a result, except with direct NATO involvement, the US has been willing to accept and facilitate actions that would have been considered triggers for nuclear war during the Cold War.
Is the Swarm Winning?
Let’s evaluate the progress of the Swarm’s war on evil in the following areas:
Catastrophe
Connections
Sustainability