The Great Powers Respond
Here's some structured thinking on how the great powers (Russia, US, and China) will respond to the sudden emergence of drone hedgehogs (Ukraine, Iran, and Taiwan). Let's dive in.
Three of the world’s great powers have the same problem: they don’t know how to defeat a drone hedgehog that threatens their interests. What is a drone hedgehog?
It’s a country with a large drone-fueled arsenal (from aerial to ballistic to land to sea)
capable of fighting a major power to a standstill or
making attacks so costly, they deter a major power from acting.
The pairing for each power is;
Russia vs. Ukraine
United States vs. Iran
China vs. Taiwan
Phases of Development
All three of the great powers are engaged with a drone hedgehog at different phases of emergence.
Russia is at war with a fully developed drone hedgehog capable of (Ukraine pioneered the concept over the course of the war, changing the entire calculus of the conflict);
creating a tactical environment so lethal (millions of short-range drones a year) that ground operations are frozen in place.
conducting sustained strategic attacks on critical systems deep within its territory.
building millions of drones a year and producing a constant stream of innovations by leveraging global technological development and supply chains (China).
The US is in a stalemate with an emergent drone hedgehog (Iran) capable of;
withstanding relentless air bombardment while sustaining the capability to strike back.
using attacks to shape the conflict (using tit-for-tat attacks, or the threat of them, to coerce the US into limiting its attacks),
closing a globally strategic choke point and threatening regional allies’ strategic assets.
China is facing a country capable of;
rapidly developing a powerful drone arsenal using domestic technology and manufacturing capabilities.
becoming a potential regional counter to any future Chinese military operations in the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the Philippine Sea.
successfully deterring any future Chinese military and economic actions against the country.
The Great Power Strategic Response
One of the more interesting aspects of the emergence of drone hedgehogs is how it will impact the decision-making of the great powers (countries with large militaries and overwhelming nuclear arsenals). Here’s some thinking on how all three will react.
