Why Swarms Don't Fear Nukes

A networked swarm continues to push the war in Ukraine forward, despite the potential for nuclear escalation. Let's figure out why.

Wars that involve nuclear superpowers are always dangerous, but luckily, we’ve been able to find ways to mitigate that danger. Mostly, it comes down to moving slowly with patience and insight (into the thinking of the opponent), making our way slowly to a solution. So far, that approach, although occasionally rocky, has enabled us to get through seventy years without a global war, let alone a nuclear one.

The sudden emergence of a networked swarm upended this approach.

In a spasm of activity over a few short weeks, this network escalated Russia’s regional war with Ukraine into a global struggle. It turned Russia, a state integrated into the west, into an evil empire with whom there would be no negotiation except unconditional surrender. In short, the networked swarm threw all the lessons learned on avoiding a nuclear WW3 out the window (defenestration). Now, we are engaged in a conflict that has escalated to the edge of nuclear war, with a sprawling online network cheering it on.

Fortunately, networked dissent is rising in opposition to the swarm, and people are now willing to stand up and push back against headlong escalation before it is too late. With this in mind, here’s some analysis that will help them in their efforts.

The big question I’d like to answer in this essay is; why are so many people actively cheering on a war at the edge of nuclear release? I got a good deal of insight into this question from the recent pushback on a few popular Twitter posts I made.

The first insight is that this network is open source. While the entire network supports opposition to Putin (the plausible promise holding it together) and the escalation of the effort to do that, everyone has a different reason for doing so.

Let’s dig into these reasons.

The one thing the network can agree on is that Putin is an existential threat that must be removed, no matter what the cost. Here are the reasons (frames) used by people in the swarm who support this view:

WW2

By far, the most prominent response has been this is WW2 all over again.

“Perhaps you should take some history lessons. Let's start with Hitler rise to power and WW2 then you will understand.”

“On the contrary we still remember how well appeasement and "peace in our time" worked before WW2.”

“So we should cheer on a despot? Presumably in WW2 you would have supported Hitler?”

“when Hitler invaded Poland was that regional? just wondering”

The rise of this frame was inevitable. The swarm began in February with efforts of political networks inside the US that arose to oppose Trump.

After Jan 6th, domestic political networks evolved from opposing Trump to waging war on “a rising tide of global fascism.”

Trump and Putin were no longer called dangerous leaders by oppositional networks; instead, they were anointed leaders of a global fascist movement. A movement on the march in Italy, Hungary, Brazil, and other countries on its way to world domination. A movement supported by fascists inside the US, who, on Jan 6th, attempted to take over the US government.

So, when Putin invaded Ukraine, the WW2 comparison was instantly proven correct. The axis had arisen, prompting Joe Biden to declare war on it in true WW2 fashion.

For this faction of the swarm, WW2 is the only frame they use to make sense of Ukraine. It has the following attributes:

• Putin = Hitler. Ukraine = Poland (or Czechoslovakia for the slightly brighter proponents).

• Lesson: It will be too late if you don’t oppose evil early. Those who oppose doing this are appeasers or “Putin lovers.”

• Since nuclear weapons didn’t exist in the early WW2 frame, they don’t exist now.

Genocide

This Ukraine war is genocide, and everything that can be done must be done. This argument harkens back to the WW2 frame and the holocaust.

“Never thought I’d live to see Western intellectuals being complicit with genocide in Europe, simply because they’re cowards, or brain damaged Kremlin trolls.”

“I never thought I would witness an attempt at European genocide and appeasers would be willing to drop their trousers, bend over and take it”

This frame has the following attributes:

• The Russians have committed genocide in Ukraine.

• Anyone who opposes escalating this war is a “genocide denier.”

• Stopping genocide is worth any risk (including nuclear war)

Useful Idiot

This approach sees any opposition to escalating the war through the lens of Russian propaganda.

“Yes, just keep repeating the big lies as if that makes it fact. Those paying attention know this is pure propaganda and we aren't going to play the role of #UsefulIdiot for the Marxists.”

“I never thought we’d get to the edge of nuclear war and the Kremlin would have so many independent journalists on its payroll”

The attributes of this are:

• Those opposed to escalation are useful idiots: people who are compromised and manipulated by Russian propaganda.

• These people are either too sentimental in their opposition to the war to see the threat, those under the influence of Russian propaganda, or those paid off by Russian propagandists.

• No opposing claims are valid. It’s all propaganda.

Adjacent to this is a group called NAFO (The North Atlantic Fellas Organization). This international network swoops in with trolling and memes to suppress opposition whenever it emerges.

Bully

Putin is a bully, and the only way to stand up to a bully is through strength (nerd rage).

“Victim blaming from a another male mediocrity. Hey everyone, when you encounter a bully just let it slide.”

“You never been bullied, more likely been the bully. I've been bullied. The only time I detached myself from one is when I've putted fear in him, saw it in his eyes, didn't even need to strike him. Putin is one, Ukraine and the world has to put fear in him. He won't nuke”

This frame has the following attributes:

• Putin is a bully.

• The only way to oppose bullies is through strength.

• Bullies always back down.

Variant: don’t give in to “nuclear” blackmail.

Putin’s Fault - Won’t Happen

If there is a nuclear war, it’s all Putin’s fault, or it won’t happen.

“The only country threatening nuclear Armageddon is Putin. So why are you blaming the US?”

“There will NEVER be nuclear war”

“He's never going to press the effin button. It's all a feint.”

The attributes of this are:

• It won’t happen.

• If it does happen, it’s not our fault; it’s his.

• If you disagree, you are ignorant.

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As you can see, the resistance to dissenting arguments is all over the map. That diversity is a strength of open-source networks. It’s impossible to win any argument or reach a compromise when the reasons people are resistant are so variable.

More soon.

Sincerely,

John Robb

PS: A final reason (provided by a friend) for not fearing nuclear escalation: if you spend too much time online, outside your body, you will reduce your attachment to the endurance of that body and the deep awareness that your life is attached to the endurance of your body.